Northwest Hockey Conference Remains a Three-team Race
Northview, St. Francis, St. John’s go down to the wire
All of the top three teams in the Red Division of the Northwest Hockey Conference had a great showing this past weekend.
Sylvania Northview started off their weekend against Findlay at The Cube. The game remained scoreless for 42 minutes until Northview finally was able to get one in the back of the net. The Wildcats then scored an empty net goal to seal the game and get a 2-0 win.
Northview then faced Perrysburg on Saturday and buried five goals, all by five different players, on their way to a 5-2 win.
St. Francis started off their weekend against Bowling Green. The Knights scored two goals in the 1st, four in the 2nd, and three in the 3rd for a total of nine goals. The Knights were highlighted by Sawyer Zielinski who had a natural hat trick, scoring three times in the 2nd period. Bowling Green only scored two goals, both by Ethan Helvoigt, and assisted by Cooper Feehan. The Knights took the 9-2 win.
The Knights played Findlay on Saturday at home. Andrew Tucker scored all four goals for St. Francis, including one shorthanded. The Trojans were only able to score twice as the Knights won 4-2.
St. Francis finished the weekend with a 10-0 win over Anthony Wayne. Jacob Myers scored four goals for the Knights and a total of six of the goals were scored by the Knights’ first line.
St. John’s faced Bowling Green on Saturday. The game was tied at zero until Titans forward Tyler Meader scored two goals in the 2nd. The Titans notched another goal and got the 3-0 win against the Bobcats.
The Titans then went on to face Perrysburg at the Huntington Center in downtown Toledo on Tuesday night. St. John’s won a close game 5-4 to help keep them in the title race.
Lake and Clay played a very high scoring affair as the game ended 10-7 in favor of the Flyers. Lake would also beat the Blue Devils 11-1, a game that saw two hat tricks, one by Clay Soltis (4 goals), and James Bickley (3).
Southview faced Whitmer for a White Division showdown. Southview took the lead early into the 1st period and didn’t look back, winning 4-1.
In non-league play, Anthony Wayne played Bedford [MI], winning 6-1 after previously beating them 3-2. Whitmer faced CHC opponent Gahanna Lincoln, however Whitmer would lose 10-1. The Blue Devils also faced Perrysburg JV, winning a close one 3-2.
Note: the simulation below assumes every team has a 50/50 chance of winning remaining league games (i.e. "coin flip"). Teams are listed below in their likelihood of claiming the Red Division title using this methodology.
LOOKING AHEAD
NORTHVIEW (17-8-3, 8-1-1 RED DIVISION, 1ST)
RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: 52.29%
2/3 - St. Francis (LEAGUE)
2/4 - Anthony Wayne (LEAGUE)
Northview has a chance to eliminate St. Francis with a win on Friday. Northview’s final two league games are this weekend and winning both will guarantee them Wildcats at least a share of the league title. Northview previously beat St. Francis 5-4 in a matchup two weeks ago and also beat Anthony Wayne 7-1 previously. The Wildcats, the highest-ranked NHC team in the state rankings at #4, look to assert their dominance on the Red Division and earn their first league title since 2020 (shared with St. Francis).
ST. FRANCIS (14-11-1, 8-2-0 RED DIVISION, 2ND)
RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: 20.65%
2/3 - Northview (LEAGUE)
2/4 - St. John’s (LEAGUE)
2/5 - Olentangy Liberty
St. Francis controls their own destiny this weekend, going head-to-head against the other two teams that can win the division. Winning their final two games of league play against their two biggest rivals will give them the division title outright. The Knights also has a showdown against the #2 ranked team in the state, Olentangy Liberty, at home.
ST. JOHN’S (15-11-2, 7-1-1 RED DIVISION, 3RD)
RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: 27.16%
2/3 - Findlay (LEAGUE)
2/4 - St. Francis (LEAGUE)
St. John’s has the most games remaining (3) of the three teams eligible for the title. If the Titans win out, and Northview and St. Francis each lose once, then St. John’s will be the Red Division champion. St. John’s previously beat Findlay 3-1, but they did fall to St. Francis 2-3. St. John’s is looking for their first title since sharing it with Northview in 2020.
FINDLAY (15-11-0, 3-5-0 RED DIVISION, 4TH)
RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: ELIMINATED
2/3 - St. John’s (LEAGUE)
2/4 - Perrysburg (LEAGUE)
Findlay had a tough time in league play this season compared to its non-league play. Even though the Trojans cannot win the Red Division, they still have the chance to play the role of spoiler against St. John’s. Findlay has four more league games left this season, two this weekend and two next weekend. Findlay is not able to climb any higher in the standings so they will focus on holding onto fourth place and heading into the regional tournament with some momentum.
PERRYSBURG (14-13-1, 3-6-0 RED DIVISION, 5TH)
RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: ELIMINATED
2/3 - Anthony Wayne (LEAGUE)
2/4 - Findlay (LEAGUE)
2/5 - Bedford [MI]
Perrysburg only has three more league games left to play, all against teams not competing for the division title. However, Perrysburg has a chance to fight for 4th place with Findlay, where they finished last season. The Yellow Jackets have had a very rollercoaster type of a season. They started out by beating St. Francis, but were not able to beat any other top three teams. Perrysburg finishes this weekend against Bedford (MI).
BOWLING GREEN (12-15-2, 1-8-0 RED DIVISION, 6TH)
RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: ELIMINATED
2/5 - Anthony Wayne (LEAGUE)
Bowling Green has three games left in league play, and their only one this weekend is against the only team they have beaten, Anthony Wayne. The Bobcats have not been able to get another win in league play, but they have three more shots to do so before the regular season is over.
ANTHONY WAYNE (9-18-1, 0-7-0 RED DIVISION, 7TH)
RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: ELIMINATED
2/3 - Perrysburg (LEAGUE)
2/4 - Northview (LEAGUE)
2/5 - Bowling Green (LEAGUE)
Anthony Wayne has the most games left out of any Red Division team – a total of five – giving them 10 possible points in the standings. The only team that the Generals do not play to end out the season is St. Francis. If they are able to get an upset, they could ruin Northview’s chances of a league title, but their highest chance of a win this weekend would be against Bowling Green.
RED DIVISION "COIN FLIP" SIMULATION:
WHITE DIVISION
In White Division play, Whitmer plays host to the Blue Devils and Southview hosts Lake. Clay plays Troy and North Olmstead in the only non-league games of the weekend.
--- Braeden Sample (@SticksAndStats) for Ohio Hockey Digest
WHITE DIVISION "COIN FLIP" SIMULATION
