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Northwest Hockey Conference Still Up for Grabs

By Braeden Sample, 01/27/23, 8:45AM EST

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St. John’s slows down first-place Northview

League play started to heat up this past weekend in the Northwest Hockey Conference as every team was active.

Northview started off the weekend in a tight game against St. John’s. The game was tied, 1-1, after the 1st period and remained that way until halfway through the 3rd where Northview took the lead. However, St. John’s scored two goals in four minutes, including one on the powerplay, to take the 3-2 upset win.

Northview faced Perrysburg the next day and had 43 shots in the 8-2 win. Drake Symbolik had a hat trick and there were a total of 22 penalties, 11 by each team. Northview finished off the weekend with a game against another team fighting for first, St. Francis. Both teams had 26 shots throughout the game, and it needed overtime to determine a winner. With 7:25 left in OT, Northview got the golden goal and a much needed 5-4 win.

St. Francis faced Bowling Green on Saturday. The Bobcats took an early lead, only for the Knights to net three goals in the 2nd period. Bowling Green put up a fight, however. They scored two goals in the 3rd, before the Knights scored one late, and won 4-3.

St. John’s only other game was against Bowling Green as well. The Titans scored six goals in the first two periods and scored another in the 3rd. Bowling Green was only able to get a pair as the Titans won 7-2.

Perrysburg only played one more game other than Northview, and it was against Anthony Wayne. Perrysburg scored three in the 1st, five in the 2nd, and another in the 3rd as the Yellow Jackets won 9-0, highlighted by a hat trick by Jackson Baltzell.

Findlay played the bottom two teams in the NHC standings, Bowling Green and Anthony Wayne. In the game against Bowling Green, the Bobcats were able to score once in each period. However that wouldn’t prove to be enough as Findlay scored five goals, each by a different player as they won 5-3. It was a different story in the Anthony Wayne game however, as Findlay dominated, taking the 6-1 win.

Clay and Southview played in the only White Division game over the weekend. It was a tight game after the 1st period as each team scored three times. However, Clay scored two more in the 2nd, and 2 in the 3rd to win 7-3.

However, in non-league play, St. Francis was the only red division team to play in a non-league game, losing to Detroit Country Day 4-3.

Mason beat the Blue Devils by 1, 6-5. Lake beat St. John’s JV 3-0 and Bedford [MI] beat Whitmer 6-2.

Note: the simulation below assumes every team has a 50/50 chance of winning remaining league games (i.e. "coin flip"). Teams are listed below in their likelihood of claiming the Red Division title using this methodology.

LOOKING AHEAD

NORTHVIEW (15-8-3, 6-1-1, RED DIVISION, 1ST)

RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: 43.37%

1/27 - Findlay (LEAGUE)
1/28 - Perrysburg (LEAGUE)

Northview almost has a 50% chance to win the title this year and the lowest they have finished is 6th, but with a 0.7% chance. Northview suffered their first league loss over the weekend in a tight game against St. John’s. But this weekend Northview has two games against teams that they beat on a combined goal differential of 13-3. The Wildcats only have four league games left this season, all against teams that are below them in the standings.

ST. JOHN’S (13-11-2, 5-1-1 RED DIVISION, 2ND)

RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: 30.12%

1/28 - Bowling Green (LEAGUE)
1/31 - Perrysburg (LEAGUE)

St. John’s chance of claiming the top spot place went up 12% after their win against 1st place Northview. St. John’s also has one game in hand against the Wildcats. St. John’s also has all their games against teams that are below them in the standings, with their toughest game being against rival St. Francis. The Titans can make it a tight race if they keep winning games, and maybe steal 1st place if they win out and Northview loses at least once.

ST. FRANCIS (11-11-1, 5-2-0 RED DIVISION, 3RD)

RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: 20.53%

1/27 - Bowling Green (LEAGUE)
1/28 - Findlay (LEAGUE)
1/29 - Anthony Wayne (LEAGUE)

St. Francis’ percentage went down 4% after their tight loss to Northview. Now, theoretically, the Knights have to win every game for the rest of the season to stay in this hunt. St. Francis has five games left in league play, however, they have one each against Northview and St. John’s. St. Francis does have a game in hand against Northview and are only one point behind St. John’s. So, with some wins, St. Francis could find themselves at the top once again at the end of it all.

FINDLAY (15-9-0, 3-3-0 RED DIVISION, 4TH)

RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: 5.1%

1/27 - Northview (LEAGUE)
1/28 - St. Francis (LEAGUE)

Findlay’s chances to win the Red Division are dwindling. Findlay is most likely to finish right where they are now, in 4th, with a 25.8% chance. However, Findlay probably has one of the hardest schedules remaining as they play the top three teams back-to-back-to-back. Findlay has six league games left, so it is possible to get to the top with 12 points still on the table, but the Trojans need to get wins in every game that they possibly can before time runs out.

PERRYSBURG (14-11-1, 3-4-0 RED DIVISION, 5TH)

RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: 0.98%

1/28 - Northview (LEAGUE)
1/31 - St. John’s (LEAGUE)

Perrysburg finished in 1st in only 1% of 1000 simulations. They face the top two teams in the division this weekend, showing why the chance is so small. After this weekend, Perrysburg has games that are very winnable for them. But if they want to get that 1st place, Perrysburg is going to have to win every one of their games and hope that they get some help with other results. Perrysburg and St. John’s will face each other at the Huntington Center in downtown, a good place to showcase an upset.

BOWLING GREEN (12-13-4, 1-6-0 RED DIVISION, 6TH)

RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: ELIMINATED

1/27 - St. Francis (LEAGUE)
1/28 - St. John’s (LEAGUE)

Bowling Green was eliminated after dropping three league games last weekend. Things don’t get any easier for the Bobcats, as they face two of the top three teams this weekend. Bowling Green hasn’t won a league game since they beat Anthony Wayne 8-1 on December 17th. Bowling Green finished in 2nd once in the simulation, giving them a 0.1% chance of getting there.

ANTHONY WAYNE (8-17-1, 0-6-0 RED DIVISION, 7TH)

RED DIVISION TITLE CHANCES: ELIMINATED

1/27 - Bedford [MI]
1/29 - St. Francis (LEAGUE)

Anthony Wayne joins Bowling Green as the only 2 teams to be eliminated from getting 1st place. The Generals are the only team to be playing a non-league game this weekend as they play Bedford, who the Generals beat 3-2 prior. Anthony Wayne still has 6 games left to go to complete the league schedule, as they hope to get a couple wins before the end of the season.

RED DIVISION "COIN FLIP" SIMULATION:

WHITE DIVISION

Lake faces Clay and the Blue Devils. Whitmer travels down to Columbus to face Gahanna Lincoln. Clay also plays Bedford [MI] and Brooklyn. Southview plays Whitmer in another league game. The Blue Devils will play another JV team, this time Perrysburg’s JV team.

WHITE DIVISION "COIN FLIP" SIMULATION