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Eight League Games on NHC Docket

By Braeden Sample, 01/19/23, 2:15PM EST

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Simulation: Handicapping the race for the NHC title

There were no league games in the Northwest Hockey Conference over the weekend as all teams playing competed in tournaments around the state.

Two Red Division teams represented the NHC in the Mark Rasmus Memorial Tournament, St. John’s and Northview. St. John’s finished the tournament 2-2 after winning their first two games against Cincinnati opponents, 2-0 against Moeller and 5-2 against St. Xavier. However, they lost their final two games against University School 2-3 and 0-2 in the championship.

Northview finished without a loss, going 2-0-2. The Wildcats tied their first two games 1-1 against University School and against Moeller. They would pick up the pace with a 7-2 win over St. Xavier and a 3-1 win over Moeller in the 3rd place game.

Perrysburg competed in the Pioneer Classic Varsity Orange Division. After losing their first game to Hudson 4-2, the Yellow Jackets beat Olentangy 4-3 and New Albany 6-3 to face Newark for the championship. However, they fell short in the 2-1 loss as the Generals got their first win against an NHC opponent this season. Senior Cody Schneider scored his 112th goal over the weekend, putting him in 2nd for the all-time career goals for Perrysburg.

Bowling Green, Findlay, and Anthony Wayne all played in the Jesuit MLK Classic hosted by Walsh Jesuit. Bowling Green tied Team Ohio 1-1 and beat Benedictine 5-2 to face Olentangy Liberty in the championship. However, the Patriots got the best of the Bobcats winning 7-1. Findlay beat Rocky River 3-1 but lost to Team Ohio 3-2. They played Walsh Jesuit for 3rd place, but came up short, losing 5-1. Anthony Wayne lost all their games: losing 4-2 to Walsh Jesuit, 5-0 to Rocky River, and 3-0 to Benedictine in the 7th place game.

St. Francis traveled up to Cleveland to play in the Father Styles Tournament. The Knights dominated St. Charles in a 5-0 win, but lost to the 5th team in Illinois, Glenbrook North [IL], 5-1. They also lost to Upper Arlington 6-2 to finish the weekend 1-2.

Clay and the Blue Devils played in the Pioneer Classic JV Orange Division tournament. Clay beat Olentangy Orange JV 9-1 and the Blue Devils 9-6. However, they lost in a shootout to Newark JV, 5-4 and lost in the 3rd place game to the Fremont Ice Wolves 5-2. The Blue Devils lost all their games: 14-1 to Newark JV, 5-4 to Olentangy Orange JV, 9-6 to Clay, and 3-2 to the Canton Akron Jets.

Springboro played both Lake and Whitmer over the weekend, beating Whitmer 4-0 and 3-1, and beating Lake 3-0.

I created a “Coin Flip” simulation of the rest of the NHC season, and ran it 1,000 times to see what the chances of each team winning their divisions looked like.

Note: this simulation assumes every team has a 50/50 chance of winning remaining league games (i.e. "coin flip"). Teams are listed below in their likelihood of claiming the Red Division title using this methodology.

LOOKING AHEAD

NORTHVIEW (13-7-3, 4-0-1 RED DIVISION, 1ST)

RED DIVISION TITLE PERCENTAGE: 37.73%

1/20 - St. John’s (LEAGUE)
1/21 - Perrysburg (LEAGUE)
1/22 - St. Francis (LEAGUE)

Northview holds the league's highest chance to win the Red Division, and for good reason. They finished in first 377.25 times out of 1000, and only have a 0.7% chance to finish last (7/1000). Northview has a chance to put all of the talk about teams coming back to finish first to rest. A sweep over the three games this weekend and wins by Bowling Green over St. Francis and St. John’s this weekend moves the Wildcats closer to clinching. In order to do this, Northview has to continue with the play style that they have been doing to clinch a divisional championship for the first time since 2020 (co-champs with St. Francis).

ST. FRANCIS (10-9-1, 4-1-0 RED DIVISION, 2ND)

RED DIVISION TITLE PERCENTAGE: 24.08%

1/20 - Detroit Country Day [MI]
1/21 - Bowling Green (LEAGUE)
1/22 - Northview (LEAGUE)

St. Francis is still in the tight battle for first with St. Francis and St. John’s, having a 24.08% chance of finishing ahead of them in 1st. They travel up to Michigan to play a non-league game against the 4th best team in the state for D3. They then travel back home with the opportunity to steal 1st place from Northview with 2 big wins. The Knights want to keep in that hunt to continue the streak of division champs.

ST. JOHN’S (11-11-2, 3-1-1 RED DIVISION, 3RD)

RED DIVISION TITLE PERCENTAGE: 18.77%

1/20 - Northview (LEAGUE)
1/21 - Bowling Green (LEAGUE)

St. John’s finished in 1st 187.7 times out of 1000, slightly lower than their rival St. Francis. They look to stay in the hunt for 1st place with them and current leader, Northview. They have a chance to grab that 1st place with two wins and other results that occur with the two other teams. However, hard work will be needed to get those results, and St. John’s has the ability to control their own destiny.

PERRYSBURG (13-10-1, 2-3-0 RED DIVISION, 4TH)

RED DIVISION TITLE PERCENTAGE: 10.37%

1/20 - Anthony Wayne (LEAGUE)
1/21 - Northview (LEAGUE)

Perrysburg has a chance to upset Goliath in this weekend’s battle with Northview. Perrysburg still has a chance of getting first, finishing there 103.7 times out of 1000. However, the Yellow Jackets are more likely (16.2% chance) of finishing 6th out of 7 teams, a higher chance than finishing 3rd (14%). They could prove themselves to be a solid contender for 1st place with two big wins.

FINDLAY (13-9-0, 1-3-0 RED DIVISION, T5TH)

RED DIVISION TITLE PERCENTAGE: 4.08%

1/20 - Bowling Green (LEAGUE)
1/21 - Anthony Wayne (LEAGUE)

Findlay finished in 1st place the exact same amount as Bowling Green did, but is likely looking at a 5th or 6th place finish at the end of it all. The Trojans play two games this weekend, and two wins would put them to .500 for divisional play. Findlay faces Bowling Green at home, which could give them the home-ice advantage for the game. Findlay has not played many home games at The Cube this season, but two big wins can put Findlay in a good position.

BOWLING GREEN (12-10-4, 1-3-0 RED DIVISION, T5TH)

RED DIVISION TITLE PERCENTAGE: 3.77%

1/20 - Findlay (LEAGUE)
1/21 - St. Francis (LEAGUE)
1/22 - St. John’s (LEAGUE)

Bowling Green still has a chance, finishing first 37.7 times out of 1000. The Bobcats are looking more at a 6th or 7th place finish however, finishing there 20% of the time. It will be a tough weekend for the Bobcats as they play two of the top teams in the division, but three wins this weekend would put the Bobcats over .500 for division play, meaning they could still make that late push and potentially snatch the crown of the Red Division.

ANTHONY WAYNE (8-15-1, 0-4-0 RED DIVISION, 7TH)

RED DIVISION TITLE PERCENTAGE: 1.33%

1/20 - Perrysburg (LEAGUE)
1/21 - Findlay (LEAGUE)

Out of the 1000 sims of the season, Anthony Wayne only finished first 13.25 times. The Generals are most likely to finish dead last in the division, finishing 7th 355/1000 times, a percentage of 35.54%. However, all is not lost for the Generals as they still have a chance of winning the division. The Generals play the 4th and 5th place teams in the Red Division and still have hope that they can make a late run over the last 8 games to finish higher up in the standings.

RED DIVISION "COIN FLIP" SIMULATION:

WHITE DIVISION

Lake plays St. John’s hot JV team, and the Blue Devils face the Mason Comets. Clay plays Southview in the only league game of the weekend Whitmer plays Bedford [MI] who is 2-4 against NHC opponents so far this season and previously beat Whitmer 4-1.

--- Braeden Sample (@SticksAndStats) for Ohio Hockey Digest

Sticks and Stats: A blog for hockey stats

WHITE DIVISION "COIN FLIP" SIMULATION